Dissecting the cell phone & computer trends and some on AR/VR.
I keep hearing computers are dead and cell phones are the new thing. The myths behind this are a few. First off computers have leveled off in processing power while cell phones are going threw processing steps faster. In large part desktop CPU’s have leveled off for speed and slow to push out cores and transistor density. The main thing is speed, GHz speeds have leveled off so no reason to upgrade. Also to couple with that video cards have advanced but the newer ones are to expensive $200-$1500 was the older range for normal. Now it is $500-$5,000 for a good video card and CPU’s have not gone over 5GHz and stuck at the 4GHz range for a while now. No big leaps in motherboards also in that time. so why buy a new computer if you have one that works and is comparable to new processors that just have more cores. They are just now getting to where they are using the extra cores more, but most people only need a few cores anyway and no speed increase has happened. Even though as GHz goes up the increase in speed is less as it scales. One of those hidden fact’s that mostly tech’s know.
In a weird way computer chip makers did this to them selves trying to push more sales and missing some points customers want. Just look at how fast they went from 2GHz to 3GHz speeds and how they seemed to stall at 4GHz range and just do more cores that a lot of apps could not utilize at first.
Now for the cell phones. Cell phones are still getting faster CPU’s/GPU’s and more memory. So the sales have continued to grow. At some point soon they will do the same as desktop CPU’s and level off. When that happens they will probably say cell phones are dead and not realize what has happened. After all cell phones are for dumbed down people, and they are struggling to figure out what is the next big thing in cell phones. The smarter ones will wait till the cell phones level out in power, and some will want phones that they can root. A cell phone is not that good at rendering and not that good for typing txt documents and so on. Though some would have you believe that cell phones are better than computers. I would stress they are the ones just looking at sales of phones in general to sales of computers in general and not the reasons why the sales are lopsided for now. They are pushers of the throwaway society and seem to miss chunks, but to be expected in some businesses. After all you do not see 4GHz cell phones with titan GPU’s in them yet and for good reason. It would be a brick of a phone if so. Couple that with the problems cell phones have with battery’s and such. which in turn lead to some of the new sales as the cell phones get destroyed. They are still searching for the killer app so to say in cell phones. Some predict AR/VR to be part of that, but if you have a computer your already better off for those types of apps and quality.
One of the other things is Apps on computers Vs cell phones. Lets take Micro soft for a example. They forced people to rebuy products that where expensive and on cell phones OS’s are more permanent and apps change less so people are not forced to buy expensive upgrades that PC owners have had to go threw. OS’s on computers have been problematic to be kind to micro soft. They have not innovated very well at all in that regard. Just look at the XP users and the flops of other OS’s Microsoft has had. Now they are pushing win 10 and you do not see much improvement from win 7 . Stagnation along with forced OS upgrades with little updated and in some cases more of a down grade further shooting them selves in the foot so to say. They do seem to be trying to move to the cloud/server based and pay per month, but they are still behind on the better models of that. In turn they are pushing more people into other OS’s to reduce having to upgrade OS’s so often. like wise with apps. more people are moving to apps that they will not be forced to upgrade a year or 2 down the road or so often. When you look at MS office products and the evolution. They seem to have dumbed down some things or developed backwards and some functions gone or changed or broken from the start. This does not inspire consumer confidence and part of why MS has gotten such a bad name in some circles.
Now when you get to VR/AR cell phones still lack a lot of what people will want and desktops are the main thing to develop on for cell phones and VR. So cell phones have more room to grow in that area if they can. while desk tops are ready to go for high quality VR as is. Couple that with most people have computers in there home and cell phones are expanding there as a secondary connection source. The price for bandwidth has become about similar in price though limited in ways for cell phones. Not like you can get fiber speeds in a cell phone. Let alone run a server on your cell phone or play a new game like crisis with high end graphics. So cell phones are still very limited in ways, but a decent out of house connection device. If industry does what they did with computers then cell phones will level out in a few revisions and due to constraints. PC’s have had room to grow but manufacturing has failed to develop good on them lately. ( I.E. stuck in speeds and not adding cores fast enough for what the market might want. Also the prices have gone up and not dropped as fast as before. ) So when you hear PC is dead and cell phones are the new. Realize part of that is cell phones had more room to grow at first and PC’s have stalled out in development to a degree.
I would also add to this new products like VR/AR. VR headsets have been around for a while and have room to develop out. You may want to skip the first runs of oculus rift and hololense as they are not high enough quality and need a few things worked out still. High probability occulus rift will sell more even though it is not the highest quality. Part of that is the buzz factor so to say and hype. Just wait for the 4k versions and develop on desktop until then. As desk tops can do 4k now. Besides they have a few problems they still need to work out in those systems and that’s if you do not make your own. HTC looked decent but not as much hype around it as occulus. I expect more reports of pc being dead and cell phones taking over, but they will be going by sales when most had and have pc’s that run fine and do not need upgrading while cell phones will need upgrading and will have more sales as they become as common place as PC’s in homes. if you have a decent cell phone then try to wait a few revisions to get a new one and save your self some money. similarly if you can wait to get a VR headset then it might pay in the end to wait and let them get more content and better quality in the sets. If you have both PC and cell phone then use the set to develop your own stuff for them, and realize that cell phones will get better faster than PC’s for the short term. Cell phones have more catching up to do after all. While PC’s have leveled off some what. Though a slight warning also. PC’s will have to deal with OS’s and softwear that will be made obsolete on purpose as Microsoft is known for. You may want to move to another OS and apps that last longer.